WALMEX trades at 8.8x forward EV/EBITDA and 16.7x forward P/E, a premium to the Mexican peer median of 14.1x yet roughly 20% below its own three-to-five-year history.
We judge the de-rating mostly earned: a doubled risk-free rate, growth narrowed to price with traffic negative in four of the last five quarters, and four years of margin compression.
The call is gradable on the tape: two consecutive quarters of EBITDA margin holding at or above 10.2% with SG&A decelerating and traffic stabilizing would confirm the inflection.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Published June 2026. Research reflects data available through June 2026.
Download Free ExcerptThe largest retailer in Mexico and Central America, operating 4,282 stores across six countries as of 1Q26 under formats including Bodega Aurrera, Walmart Supercenter, Sam's Club and Walmart Express. FY2025 revenue reached approximately MXN 1.0 trillion, with Walmart Inc. holding a roughly 71% ownership stake.
Investment tear sheet, investment thesis, bull and bear case, key risks, financial snapshot, key catalysts
The multi-format franchise and moat, formats and ownership, scale and store fleet, management, governance, the ecosystem businesses
Mexican modern trade, ANTAD and the consumer, e-commerce and hard discount, peers and WALMEX's premium position
Revenue and same-store-sales quality, profitability and the EDLP-reinvestment crux, balance sheet and net cash, cash flow and capital allocation, key metrics
FCFF DCF on a normalized WACC, reverse DCF, scenario and sensitivity, relative valuation versus peers, football field and blended fair value
Margin inflection, 2026 tax and EPS normalization, store expansion, ecosystem optionality, the rate regime
Risk matrix, structural-versus-cyclical margin compression, hard-discount share loss, cost-of-capital reversal, Central America, parent concentration
Investment thesis summary, bull, bear and key risks, what would change our view
Full financial tables FY2021A-FY2030E, key model and valuation assumptions, Mexican retail peer comparison, cost-of-capital inputs, catalyst calendar, primary sources
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