At MXN 41.20 the shares trade near 5.25x trailing pre-IFRS-16 EV/EBITDA, below both Arcos Dorados at 6.2x and Alsea's own five-year average of 5.4x, after a roughly 29% price fall over five months pushed the multiple beneath its three-year trough.
The two risks that justified that discount have resolved: the Starbucks Mexico licence was renewed through 2046 in May 2026, and free cash flow inflected to positive MXN 45mm in the first half of 2026 from negative MXN 2,677mm a year earlier, as the January refinancing cut cash interest by MXN 479mm.
The offset is a July guidance cut to low-single-digit growth on soft Mexico demand, with Starbucks Mexico same-store sales at negative 2.0% in the second quarter; the call turns on whether the Mexico remodel program reaccelerates traffic, with the first clean read at the late-October third-quarter print.
One-time purchase. Instant PDF delivery to your email.
Buy NowDownload link valid for 48 hours after purchase.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Published August 2026. Research reflects data available through August 2026.
Download Free ExcerptAlsea is Latin America's largest multi-brand restaurant operator, running about 4,801 locations across 12 countries under brands including Starbucks, Domino's Pizza, Burger King, Chili's, The Cheesecake Factory and owned concepts like Vips. Mexico is its largest market, with operations also spanning Europe and South America.
Investment thesis, bull and bear case, financial snapshot, key catalysts
Business model, brand portfolio, revenue mix, the Starbucks Mexico renewal to 2046, franchise structures, ownership, management
Foodservice market sizing, the competitive landscape, digital and loyalty trends, regulatory and cost environment
Revenue and same-store sales, profitability versus peers, balance sheet and leverage, the 2026 free-cash-flow inflection, earnings quality, the 2Q26 and first-half actuals
DCF and WACC build, sensitivity, a beta cardinal test and reverse-DCF, relative and own-history multiple analysis, a consensus comparison
The Starbucks 2046 renewal, the free-cash-flow inflection, the Mexico remodel program, new brands, and the realized World Cup
Risk matrix and deep dive on Mexico consumer demand, the Starbucks Mexico trend, and the bounded royalty exposure on the renewed licence
Thesis summary, the revision from the prior edition, what would change our view
Full financial tables, detailed DCF assumptions, event calendar, data sources
FAQ