January 2026 refinancing unlocks ~MXN 440mm in annual interest savings, flipping FCF from negative MXN 1.2bn to positive MXN 2.2bn in a single year.
Trading at 5.9x forward EV/EBITDA, a discount to peer ARCO (6.2x), despite entering its first period of structurally clean earnings with no USD debt noise.
Starbucks Mexico renewal (Feb 2027) is an asymmetric catalyst: 85%+ probability of renewal, 1-2x multiple expansion upside if confirmed.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Published April 2026. Research reflects data available through March 2026.
Download Free ExcerptAlsea is Latin America's largest multi-brand restaurant operator, running 4,820 locations across 12 countries under brands including Starbucks, Domino's Pizza, Burger King, Chili's, The Cheesecake Factory and owned concepts like Vips.
Investment thesis, bull and bear case, financial snapshot, key catalysts
Business model, brand portfolio, revenue mix, ownership, management, M&A history
Foodservice market sizing, regulatory environment, competitor benchmarking, tailwinds and headwinds
Revenue, profitability, balance sheet, cash flow, FCF inflection, earnings quality
DCF, WACC build, sensitivity analysis, relative valuation, valuation summary
Remodel ROI, FCF inflection, new brands, World Cup 2026, Starbucks renewal
Risk matrix and deep dive on company-specific risks with bear case magnitude
Thesis summary, risk/reward stance, what would change our view, what comes next
Full financial tables, detailed DCF assumptions, event calendar, data sources
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