Gruma USA earns a 21.5% segment margin and 65% of group EBITDA, yet at MXN 252 the stock trades at about 6.3x forward EV/EBITDA, a 16% discount to the packaged-food peer median, after de-rating roughly 16% since April.
Second-quarter 2026 confirmed a real US reset: Gruma USA volume fell 3% and the segment EBITDA margin dropped 260 bps to 19.4%, and management cut FY2026 guidance on the July 23 call (US EBITDA margin down about 200 bps, consolidated about 160 bps).
The offset is the rest of the group compounding: Europe EBITDA grew 17%, Asia and Oceania 47%, and Centroamerica 12% in 2Q26, while the controlling family bought back USD 143mm of stock in the first half and leverage held at 1.45x inside an investment-grade profile.
One-time purchase. Instant PDF delivery to your email.
Buy NowDownload link valid for 48 hours after purchase.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Published August 2026. Research reflects data available through August 2026.
Download Free ExcerptThe world's largest tortilla producer and the largest producer of nixtamalized corn flour in Mexico, operating 77 plants and selling in 113 countries under the Mission, Guerrero, and Maseca brands. FY2025 net sales were USD 6.37 billion, with about 83% of EBITDA generated outside Mexico, led by Gruma USA.
Investment tear sheet, investment thesis, bull and bear case, financial snapshot, key catalysts
Business model, subsidiary composition, brand portfolio, plant footprint, ownership structure, management, strategic milestones
Tortilla and corn flour markets, the Hispanic demographic driver, competitive landscape, peer comparison, regulatory environment, commodity cost environment
Revenue analysis, volume versus price and mix, FX translation effects, profitability by subsidiary, the GIMSA cost normalization arc, peer margin comparison, balance sheet and leverage, cash flow and capital allocation, key financial metrics
DCF, WACC build, sensitivity analysis, relative valuation, valuation summary
The 3Q26 US-stabilization test, year-end leverage normalization, GIMSA margin recovery, Europe and Centroamerica compounding, buyback acceleration, Venezuela ICSID optionality
Risk matrix and deep dive across the principal risks: structural US demand impairment, single-geography concentration, peso strength, cost inflation into 2027, and governance and liquidity
Investment thesis summary, what would change our view, what comes next
Full financials, DCF assumptions, event calendar, sources
FAQ