At the MXN 210.12 reference close OMA trades at about 9.4x trailing EV/EBITDA, the middle of its own 9.5 to 9.6x three-year band, a multiple it earned by leading Mexico's three airport groups on growth; that leadership has faded, with group traffic decelerating from +8.5% in FY2025 to +0.4% in 2Q26.
Two permanent headwinds now bind profitability: the concession-usage tax stepped from 5% to 9% of regulated revenue in 2024, and the committed MXN 16,671mm 2026 to 2030 Master Development Program layers a maintenance and general-cost step-up onto the base.
A reverse-DCF shows the market already prices OMA at a defensible cost of capital near 12%, so the call does not rest on the discount rate; the modest cautious tilt rests on faded growth and the permanent cost step-up, and we publish a fairly-valued verdict.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Published September 2026. Research reflects data available through September 2026.
Download Free ExcerptOperator of 13 international airports across nine states of central and northern Mexico under federal concessions that run to 2048, anchored by the Monterrey hub. FY2025 terminal traffic was 28.75 million passengers, up 8.5% and group-leading among Mexico's three listed airport operators. VINCI Airports holds a 29.99% strategic stake and appoints the management team.
Investment tear sheet, the thesis in brief, bull and bear case, key risks, financial snapshot, the dated catalysts
Dual-till concession economics, the thirteen-airport portfolio and the Monterrey hub, revenue composition, VINCI governance and the SETA agreement, management and strategic milestones
Mexico's aviation market, the Maximum-Tariff regulatory frame under AFAC and SICT, the ASUR and GAP peer set, nearshoring demand drivers, industry tailwinds and headwinds
Revenue by stream, traffic and the 2026 outlook, profitability, peer comparison, balance sheet and leverage, cash flow and the MDP-and-dividend allocation, key metrics, earnings quality
Finite-life DCF to the 2048 concession expiry, per-airport sum-of-the-parts, sensitivity and the beta cardinal test, own-history and peer relative valuation, consensus versus our view
Monthly traffic durability, Monterrey Terminal A and the 2026-2030 MDP, the tariff-compliance path to 99%, the World Cup 2026 airlift, dividend installments
Probability and severity matrix, Monterrey and nearshoring concentration, the USMCA watch-item, the permanent margin cap, leverage through the capex peak, governance and related-party
The thesis stated plainly, bull and bear and key risks, what would change our view, what comes next
Full financials, DCF and sum-of-the-parts assumptions, the event calendar, methodology and data sources
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