ASUR now spans five streams after two debt-funded deals in nine months, URW-retail (closed December 2025) and Motiva/CPC (closed September 1, 2026), which took net debt to about 2.2x EBITDA post-close from 0.9x; the CPC platform was bought at fair value entirely with debt, so it adds scale but about zero net equity value until it re-rates or grows.
The Mexican core is 57.8% of stream value and overwhelmingly Cancun, where traffic fell 7.8% in 2Q26 and worsened to 8.4% in July and 9.3% in August; management frames the softness as a cyclical cocktail of jet fuel, Spirit Airlines' bankruptcy and sargassum rather than a structural shift to Tulum.
On a consistent own basis ASUR trades near 7.6x trailing EV/EBITDA against its own 8.4x three-year median, and the reverse-DCF shows today's price already embeds a Cancun rebound of about +5.3%/yr against a +2.5% history, a recovery the data has not yet delivered.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Published September 2026. Research reflects data available through September 2026.
Download Free ExcerptOperator of 36 airport concessions across seven countries after the September 2026 close of the Motiva/CPC acquisition: 9 airports in southeastern Mexico anchored by Cancun, 6 in Colombia, 1 in Puerto Rico, and 20 across Brazil, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Curacao, plus a US commercial-retail unit at LAX, Chicago O'Hare and JFK. Combined network scale has passed 116 million passengers, and Cancun alone still drives the legacy business at 56.5% of consolidated ex-construction revenue.
Investment thesis, bull and bear case and key risks, the fair-value range, the financial snapshot and the key catalysts
Business model, the five-stream airport portfolio and 36 concessions post-close, ownership and governance, management, and the URW Airports and Motiva/CPC M&A history
The Mexico, Puerto Rico and Colombia aviation markets, the tariff and concession regulatory framework, the competitive landscape, Cancun positioning and the Tulum overlap, tailwinds and headwinds
Revenue and traffic by geography with the 2026 outlook, profitability by stream, the peer profitability comparison, balance sheet and leverage, cash flow and capital allocation, and FX and earnings quality
Sum-of-the-parts by stream on a per-stream WACC, the consolidated DCF cross-check, the sensitivity grid and cardinal beta test, own-history relative valuation, and consensus versus our view
The Motiva/CPC integration after the September 2026 close, the first consolidated 3Q26 read, the Cancun Terminal 1 reopening, the ITA internalization and dividends, JFK New Terminal One and the US-retail ramp
The risk matrix, concession life and renewal, the Cancun cyclical-versus-structural question, USMCA as a watch-item, leverage from stacked M&A, and governance and related-party risk
The investment thesis summary, bull, bear and key risks, what would change our view, and what comes next
Full financials, the SOTP and DCF assumptions, the event calendar and the sources
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