Aeronautical revenue rose 19.4% in FY2025 on just 2.5% traffic as tariff fulfillment climbs from 82.9% toward the contracted maximum. The ladder is a real franchise, but at the observable 0.72 IPC beta and a 12.78% WACC it is already in the price.
At about 12.0x trailing EV/EBITDA, 11.7x on post-CBX inputs, GAP sits roughly 20% above the 10.0x Mexican-airport peer median. OMAB earns higher margins and returns at a lower multiple, and the premium that was 41% a year ago has compressed but still points below spot.
First-half 2026 traffic fell 5.6% before July inflected to plus 1.2% (hub-led) and management cut the full-year guide to minus 3% to flat. CBX is now 100% consolidated as a dollar stream, and the 5.8% dividend runs about 126% of FY2026E earnings, debt-funded through the capex trough.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Published August 2026. Research reflects data available through August 2026.
Download Free ExcerptOperator of 14 airports under long-term concessions: 12 in the Mexican Pacific corridor (Guadalajara, Tijuana, Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta) and 2 in Jamaica (Montego Bay, Kingston), plus the wholly owned Cross Border Xpress pedestrian bridge to San Diego. It carried about 63.7 million passengers in FY2025, up 2.5% year over year.
Investment thesis, bull and bear case, financial snapshot, key catalysts
Business model, the 14-airport network, concession terms, the Cross Border Xpress consolidation, ownership, management, strategic milestones
Mexico aviation market, competitive landscape, tariff regulation, tailwinds and headwinds, aviation demand drivers
Revenue analysis, the FY2026 outlook, profitability versus peers, balance sheet and leverage, cash flow, key metrics, earnings quality
DCF and WACC build, sum-of-the-parts with the CBX dollar leg, sensitivity analysis, relative valuation, consensus comparison, valuation conclusion
Third-quarter results, monthly traffic durability, FIBRA GAP launch, dividend installments, the Banxico and MBono path
Risk matrix and deep dive on demand, cost-of-equity, and concession re-pricing risks with bear-case magnitude
Investment thesis summary and the observable thresholds that would change our view
Full financial tables, DCF assumptions, event calendar, methodology and data sources
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