At MXN 2.79 Nemak trades at about 4.0x trailing EV/EBITDA against a 5.1x usable-peer median, and the balance sheet explains the discount: reported net debt to EBITDA moved from 2.37x to 3.15x across the first half of 2026.
FY2026E EBITDA of USD 590mm turns into USD 106mm of unlevered free cash flow against USD 123mm of interest, so the equity is a thin residual that operating delivery settles, not the discount rate.
The reaffirmed USD 630 to 650mm EBITDA guide needs a second half of USD 342mm, twice the 2Q26 print; we underwrite USD 590mm and publish a range-bound verdict with no directional call.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
Published August 2026. Research reflects data available through August 2026.
Download Free ExcerptIndependent aluminum automotive-components caster operating 53 production facilities across 15 countries after the February 2026 acquisition of GF Casting Solutions, supplying Ford, GM, Stellantis and Volkswagen among more than 70 OEM customers. Reports in US dollars; the shares trade in Mexican pesos on the BMV.
Investment tear sheet, what we revised and why, bull and bear case, key risks, financial snapshot, dated catalysts
The independent caster at scale, the separation from ALFA, footprint before and after the acquisition, GF Casting Solutions, the CEO transition, customer concentration, capital structure
The light-vehicle cycle and the powertrain transition, content per vehicle, aluminium pass-through and USMCA, competition and the real threats, the peer set
Revenue, profitability and margin trend, peer profitability and returns, balance sheet and deleveraging, cash flow and capital allocation, key financial metrics
DCF and the USD WACC build, beta measured and applied, sensitivity and the cardinal beta test, the terminal mix ramp, consensus versus our view, relative valuation, football field, scenarios, what changed since June
The dated catalyst table, USMCA as a standing overhang, the order-book turn, the peso refinancing, ratings by scale
Probability and severity matrix, the equity as a residual, covenant headroom as a range, the 2028 refinancing, cash conversion, contingencies, liquidity and FX
The revision stated plainly, where we differ from consensus, what would change our view, what comes next
Full financials, debt schedule and deleveraging glide, model and valuation assumptions, peer comparison, WACC workbook, glossary, sources and methodology
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